1. Field of the Invention
This application relates to use of a computer system for trouble diagnosis and performance forecasting, and more particularly to techniques executed in a computer system for performance fitting, diagnosing, and forecasting of telephone connections based on curve fitting of data points involving telephone cable characteristics.
2. Description of Related Art
Numerous types of procedures involve many steps which are associated with particular components of the procedures. Each component in turn may have particular characteristics which, along with other factors, dictate the performance of each component. Having information related to component performances is advantageous for making diagnoses of trouble, minimizing costs, making repairs, and suggesting new, more efficient alternatives. Sometimes, however, knowing the performance of each component is neither easy nor even desirable, even if all the performances could be known, because this amount of information would be too unwieldy. Instead, the performances of the components of a realization may be mapped to an overall performance of the realization. The overall performance gives an indication of the global success of the procedure.
A telephone cable connection, as well as other multi-component processes, is an example where performance or trouble incidence is generally recorded for the entire connection, rather than the individual components. Common analysis of trouble involves an aggregate categorization of trouble type for each connection. However, because, in general, each connection may have a different configuration, these common approaches to trouble analysis preclude a diagnosis of its components. Thus, an intuitive and anecdotal examination of these aggregate trouble frequencies are sometimes used to subjectively assess component repair and replacement policies.
More objective approaches, such as the classical technique of using logistic regression to model cable trouble rates, do exist. However, although superficially relating holistic cable trouble and aggregate segment characteristics, these approaches do not account for the probabilistic structure relating cable trouble to component trouble, and do not allow an appropriate mathematical form for component trouble.
These traditional aggregate techniques do not objectively inform managers of the effects of their policies and tactics for individual components. The characteristics of the components cannot be related to trouble types and rates. The logistic regression solution does not appropriately exploit the relationship in trouble probabilities among the cable components. Although these techniques might be augmented by using more sophisticated nonlinear regression analysis, the high data storage and computational power requirements may be prohibitive.